How will globalization be impacted?
All pandemics, stretching back to Black Death and earlier, owe their global spread to movement of people across borders. None of these pandemics caused long-term reversal of globalization. So, why should Covid-19 be any different?
The answer lies in the trifecta of a prevailing anti-globalization sentiment in the West, the role played by international flights in facilitating the rapid spread of Covid-19, and the simultaneous disruption of the deeply interlocked global supply chains.
Donald Trump might be wrong in blaming the spread in US entirely on foreign travellers, but restricting flights has helped FlattenTheCurve by slowing the disease’s global outbreak. As for global supply chains – they’ve undoubtedly been a boon for most, but it remains true that the disruption in China, which sits at the crossroads of many of these supply chains, has deepened the impact of Covid-19.
Points to consider:
- Will there be a lasting reduction in international travel post Covid-19?
- Will there be an attempt to indigenize supply chains, especially of sensitive items such as food and medical equipment?
- How will Chinese manufacturing suffer as nations try to look inward?
- Given Covid-19’s impact on the elderly, will some countries encourage immigration of youth?
- Will a reversal of globalization make another pandemic more likely?
- Impact on movement of people and goods
- Financial Times - Rich countries cannot win the war against coronavirus alone
- Foreign Policy - The Coronavirus Is Killing Globalization as We Know It
- Foreign Affairs - The Coronavirus Is Killing Globalization
- Why COVID-19 is likely to change globalization, not reverse it
- The Atlantic - The Coronavirus Is Demonstrating the Value of Globalization
- NYT - A Global Outbreak is Fuelling the Backlash to Globalization
- Global supply chains
- NPR - How Coronavirus Could Disrupt The Supply Chain For Food
- HBR - How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March
- The Atlantic - The Modern Supply Chain is Snapping
- HBR - Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call for Supply Chain Management
- Role of globalization in tackling pandemics
How will politics change?
Politics and policy won’t be the same again. In US, the administration that cut taxes drastically has raised a $2.2tn relief package. Everything from paid leaves to direct payments to people is on the table. Countries around the world are matching or even beating these efforts. All indications are that coming governments will be Left-leaning. But then, Trump’s handling of the crisis, for all its flaws, has a majority approval rating. Will the outcry for more government support, coupled with a coronavirus-enforced breakdown of supply chains and xenophobia, lead to a cocktail of socially Right and economically Left governments?
- What will be the orientation of future politics?
- How much of the answer to the above question will depend on whether Trump gets reelected?
- What kind of major sociopolitical changes have previous pandemics brought about?
References
- Politics of the future
- The Atlantic - The Pandemic Could Change How Americans View Government
- Politico - Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How.
- Populism and the Coronavirus
- Impact of previous pandemics
(Dis)United States of America?
The US federal government's tardy response, and reports that the Feds have been trying to seize medical supplies from the states, have forced the states to step up and make subnational coalitions, one on each of the coasts. Highlighting the political divide, only one of those ten states has a Republican governor (Massachusetts). Trump's twitter invocations of "liberating" states have drawn heavily armed militiamen to different State Capitols, demanding that the restrictions be lifted. As the presidential election approaches, a worst-case scenario of a violent insurrection by states and/or armed civilians might still seem far-fetched, but even far more modest disturbances might be enough to trigger a simultaneous investor panic in US debt and equity market, among other world-changing effects.
Points to consider:
- How likely are American states with relatively fewer cases of Covid-19 to seal off their borders, long-term, to those that are heavily affected?
- The Governor of California has repeatedly referred to his state as a "nation-state" - what impact will this have on California and other states that are deeply Democrat and opposed to the current White House?
- As some states open up and others double down on the lockdown, what kind of wedge will this drive between them?
- As the outbreak evolves, how far apart will the states and the federal administration grow?
- What is the possibility of an armed mutiny, and how much will this depend on the results of the November election?
- How likely are investors to lose confidence in US Treasuries - the safest financial instrument in the world? What global ripple effects will this have?
Will Covid-19 be an excuse for governments to expand their authority?
Pervasive surveillance and enforcement of draconian laws has played a crucial role in helping countries like Taiwan, China, S Korea and Singapore get a handle on Covid-19. In some of these countries, people are required to disclose their identity and location data for 24x7 monitoring. Hungary's Viktor Orban has already used Covid-19 as his country's Reichstag Fire by invoking emergency, will others follow?
Another major concern is the very realistic possibility of biometric surveillance: it might act as a strong defence against a future pandemic, and also provide proof of immunity against the coronavirus which would be needed to reopen the economy.
Another major concern is the very realistic possibility of biometric surveillance: it might act as a strong defence against a future pandemic, and also provide proof of immunity against the coronavirus which would be needed to reopen the economy.
Points to consider:
- How does surveillance help in controlling the spread of a disease?
- How to strike the right balance between privacy and surveillance when it comes to tackling pandemics?
- Will the US government finally compel Big Tech to break end-to-end encryption because, maybe, that would help track suspected cases in a pandemic?
- Will this allow for greater use of facial recognition technology by law enforcement?
- What role will biometric surveillance play in future?
- Role played by surveillance in fighting Covid-19
- Contact Tracing COVID-19 Infections via Smartphone Apps
- Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan
- Axios - Singapore's Big Brother fights against coronavirus
- Vox - Coronavirus is the first big test for futuristic tech that can prevent pandemics
- BBC - Coronavirus privacy: Are South Korea's alerts too revealing?
- Singapore's stunning dashboard on the coronavirus
- Tweet on tracking in Taiwan
- BBC - Use of drones in Spain
- Loss of privacy and liberty
- MIT Tech Review - Coronavirus is forcing a trade-off between privacy and public health
- This could get Orwellian really fast
- NYT - As Coronavirus Surveillance Escalates, Personal Privacy Plummets
- Facebook, Google discuss sharing smartphone data with government to fight coronavirus
- Protect Kids’ Privacy in Online Learning
- The Guardian - Can Trump be trusted not to abuse his coronavirus emergency powers?
- Biometric surveillance
- Financial Times - The World After Coronavirus
- Tweet thread on reopening the economy using biometric surveillance
- Biometric surveillance helmets in China
- Privacy and civil liberties frameworks
Will there be a renewed focus on online/mail-in voting?
Britain, France, Chile and Bolivia have postponed elections at various levels in their countries. US states including NY and Ohio have postponed presidential primaries, but will the big one - the US presidential election - suffer the same fate? If not, and assuming Covid-19 doesn't let up or voters are still too scared to congregate, how fair would it be to hold an election? This question has taken on an urgent character after the elections in Wisconsin, and Trump's attacks on mail-in voting ever since. Options exist to make the elections more accessible to voters, but political consensus is sorely lacking and there are looming questions of security and privacy.
Points to consider:
Points to consider:
- Can elections around the world - most significantly the 2020 US elections - be postponed or disrupted by Covid-19?
- How can the hurdles to mail-in voting - signature (mis)matching, delivery to post office, among others - be overcome?
- How do alternate forms of voting affect voter turnout?
- How does Estonia - perhaps the only country with widespread online voting - secure its system?
- What will it take to generate political consensus for alternate forms of voting, especially in the US?
References
- Finland Working group: Risks of online voting outweigh its benefits
- Wired - Smartphone Voting Is Happening, but No One Knows if It's Safe
- Wikipedia - Electronic voting in Estonia
- NYT - How Are We Supposed to Vote During a Pandemic?
- WaPo - Here’s how to guarantee coronavirus won’t disrupt our elections
- WaPo - Coronavirus could change how we vote in the general election. That's not necessarily bad.
- CNN - Here's what could happen in November
- ProPublica - Voting by Mail Would Reduce Coronavirus Transmission but It Has Other Risks
What does the new coronavirus mean for climate change?
Coronavirus-enforced global shutdowns have led to a drastic fall in carbon emissions and pollution. This could go two ways: people and their leaders use this as one last opportunity to fight climate change, or go right back to status quo by promoting unsustainable economic activity to reverse the losses from the shutdown, which is exactly what happened after the 2008 recession. Already, indications are that it will the latter. China has relaxed environmental regulations to boost recovery, and the Czech PM has urged EU to suspend the European Green Deal. To make matters worse, climate research has been adversely affected and dirt cheap oil might deal a blow to renewable energy and electric vehicles.
- Will there be support for clean energy in coronavirus-related stimulus packages?
- How would cheap oil impact EVs and clean energy?
- How will global leaders approach climate change post Covid-19?
- NYT - What the Coronavirus Means for Climate Change
- MIT Tech Review - Why the coronavirus outbreak is terrible news for climate change
- Axios - What the oil market's collapse means for the climate
- Put clean energy at the heart of stimulus plans to counter the coronavirus crisis
Will the link between pandemics and dense urban spaces force us to reimagine cities?
Wuhan, NYC, Madrid, Milan - no points for guessing the common thread that binds all these locations devastated by the coronavirus. Crowded cities have been, since recorded history, the darlings of pandemics - they use the abundance of hosts in these regions to take a firm hold, and then spread their tentacles to the hinterland. Covid-19 has, expectedly, sparked calls to transform urban planning with the goal of reducing population density. But a pertinent counter question to ask is: what advantages do dense cities carry that have allowed them to grow despite the ruin of the pandemics past?
- What advantages do large, dense cities carry that they've continued to flourish?
- Are there certain aspects of urban planning, changing which, will make cities more resilient to pandemics?
- The Costs and Benefits of Density in Cities
- NYT - Density Is Normally Good for Us. That Will Be True After Coronavirus, Too.
- Pandemics Are Also an Urban Planning Problem
- After coronavirus, we need to rethink densely populated cities
- Mapping How Cities Are Reclaiming Street Space